Understanding Why Trump was elected in 2016.

PROJECT  # 1 Understanding Why Trump was elected in 2016.
 
Your completed project 1 should consist of a coherent paper, with an introduction, and a conclusion that summarizes your view, and should be a maximum of 10 single-spaced pages of text, plus any graphs and tables. The paper must include somewhere the following three components (part 1 sub-sections 1 & 2; and part 2), but you can place these subsections in the paper anywhere and in any order that makes sense in terms of your overall write argument.
 
Part 1.
 
Analysis of 2016 ANES (American National Election Study) Survey Data. For part 1, you will use the  2016 ANES survey data. This is a superb data set obtained by interviewing two samples of the electorate, one sample with face-to-face interviews (1,181 respondents) and one sample with self-administered internet interviews (3,090 respondents). Each sample was interviewed twice, first, before the 2016 Presidential  election (Sept 7- Nov 7, 2016) and second, after the election (Nov 9, 2016-Jan 8, 2017).  The data set enables you to run careful data analysis in order to get a clear idea of the distribution of views among the electorate on many issues that were key in the 2016 campaign, and are still. Note: instructions on running the ANES 2016 are below, but you will also need the document “Variables list ANES 2016” which you will find in the Documents section of the class web site.
 
Part 1, Sub-section 1: The issues (3 points)  Discuss where public opinion stood  Sept 2016-January 2017 on three key issues (one of those can include who people voted for in 2016 and/or which political party they are registered under), and include a chart outlining the results for each of the three issues.  Maximum length of text for sub-section 1 should be 2 single spaced pages, plus the three graphs (“graphs” here and throughout means the graph plus the data table that occurs on top of each graph)
Part 1, Sub-section 2: The demographics (3 points). Performing a “Crosstabulation.”   From the list of variables,  focus on the demographic variables in the study.  Select three of these variables (e.g Region/State, Gender, Self-Identified Race, Age, Total Pre-tax Income). Discuss how  public opinion on each of the three key issues that you wrote about in sub-section 1 varies with one of these three demographic variables (can be a different demographic variable for each cross tab).  This is called performing a “crosstabulation.” (For examples,  see below, pp7-10.)  Maximum length of text for sub-section 2 should be 2 single spaced pages, plus the three graphs.
For instructions on how to access and run the ANES data, see below.
 
Part  2.
Interview with a Trump supporter and with a Clinton supporter (4 points—2 for each interview)  Interview a Trump supporter, and a Clinton supporter, setting out each of their reasons for supporting Trump or Clinton. You should also ask the Trump supporter whether he/she intends at this point to vote for Trump in 2020, and why; and you should ask the Clinton supporter who at this point would be his/her preferred 2020 candidate, and why. You will be able to include this material in your project 2.   One page, single space max for each interview. Make sure to include the demographics of the persons interviewed.
Overall Paper You will receive up to an additional 5 points for putting together an interesting overall paper that includes the above, three components (i.e. Part 1, sub-section 1 and sub-section 2,  and Part 2-interview with Trump and Clinton supporter) and explains why Trump got elected in 2016. The components can each be in any place in the paper. By all means bring in additional material (from class or elsewhere), and of course remember in your analysis that, although Trump won the electoral college vote, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.
 
 
THE ANES DATA: UNDERSTANDING,  ACCESSING AND RUNNING THE ANES 2016 Study for  PART 1.
Note: in addition to this current document (“Project 1…date”), you will also need the document “Variables list ANES 2016,” which you will find in the Documents section of the class web site.
 
 
UNDERSTANDING THE AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTION STUDIES 2016
 
This is a superb data set obtained by interviewing two samples of the electorate, one sample with face-to-face interviews (1,181 respondents) and one sample with self-administered internet interviews (3,090 respondents). Each sample was interviewed twice, first before the 2016 Presidential  election (Sept 7- Nov 7, 2016) and second after the election (Nov 9, 2016-Jan 8, 2017).
 
QUESTIONS IN THE QUESTIONNAIRE
The list of questions asked is in the document “Variables list ANES 2016,” which you will find in the Documents section of the class web site, and which you must download.  The entire list of questions starts on page 6 of the above document. The vast majority of  these questions/variables ask about policy issues/opinions, and you should look through it in order to identify questions/variables that you might be interested in.   In addition, pages 6-8 contains some key “Demographic” variables pulled from the main list, and page 8 contains some key 2016 political behavior variables (e.g. who the respondent voted for, which party the respondent is registered as).
 
ACCESSING AND RUNNING THE DATA
 
To access and run the 2016 ANES data click on this link
<http://sda.library.ucla.edu/sdaweb/analysis/?dataset=anes2016-recode>.
This takes you to the screen below.
 
 
 
 
 
Part 1, Sub-section 1
Start (i) Pick, from the variables list document, a public opinion variable that interests you, and note its variable (V) number, which you will need to access and run the data.  (Note: you will be doing this for three such variables, and one of them may be from the “Political Vote 2016 Variables” list,  e.g.  V 162062x  PRE-POST VOTE SUMMARY: 2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, or  V 161019 What political party are you registered with, if any?)
 
For example V161187 (page 14 of the variable list) asks: “ Do you think the federal government should make it more difficult for people to buy a gun than it is now, make it easier for people to buy a gun, or keep these rules about the same as they are now? “
 
(ii) Type “V161187” into the “row”.
You should also, and always, type the weight variable (V160102) ” into the “weight” row. This “weight” variable adusts the responses so they reflect national deomgraphics.  See screen shot below.
Note: The variables in the Variables List document are mostly listed with a space between V and the variable number   (e.g. V 161002), but when you enter the variable in the program to run it you must take out the space (e.g. enter V161002), otherwise the variable will not run.
 
 
 
You should then hit “Run the table.”   You will see the following output.
 
The data table shows you that 53.7% believe the government should make it more difficult to buy a gun, 39.8% that it be kept as now, and 6.5% that it should be easier.   Below the data table is a frequency graph.
 
 
Here is another example.  On page 16 of the Variables list is a question about global warming.
V161221  (Pre) You may have heard about the idea that the world’s temperature may have been going up slowly over the past 100 years. What is your personal opinion on this? Do you think this has probably been happening, or do you think it probably hasn’t been happening?
 
The process of running the analysis (with v161221 in the row slot, and do not forget  v160102 in the weight row, followed by the results, is below.  You can see that a large majority, 81%, think global warming has probably been happening.
 
 
 
 
 
Here is another example. Clearly a key public opinion variable is which Presidential candidate respondents voted for 2016. The best variable here is on page 8 of the variable list.
 
V 162062x  PRE-POST VOTE SUMMARY: 2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
 
The process of running the analysis (with “v162062x” in the row slot, and do not forget to include the x, and also v160102 in the weight row), followed by the results, are below.  You can see that the voting behavior of the 2016 NES sample very closely resembled that of the actual results, with 49% voting for Clinton and  44% for Trump.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Part 1 sub-section 2.  Performing Cross-tabulation Using a “Demographic Variable” and a “Policy Variable”.
 
This involves running two variables, with one, a policy variable,  controlling for the other, a demographic variable.  For example, seeing how Presidential vote” (V161221) changes for gender, or race, or income.
 
Start by becoming familiar with the main “demographic variables,” listed on pages 6-8 of the Variable list.
First, run each of those you are interested in alone (i.e. on the Row  slot, and make sure to add the weight variable), so you can become familiar with each one.
For instance below are screen shots of running Summary SELF-IDENTIFIED RACE of respondents.
 
You can see that 69.7% identify White (non-Hispanic). Note this means they said they are White on the race question, and did not say they were Hispanic on the Hispanic question. 11% identify as Black (non-Hispanic), 2.8% as Asian, 11.9% as Hispanic.
Having selected a demographic variable and a policy variable, you are now ready to do a crosstabulation.
 
Below is a crosstabulation of Presidential Vote  (V162062x) by SELF-IDENTIFIED RACE (V161310x).
 
 
 
You can see that 39.3% of Whites (non-Hispanic) voted for Clinton, 89.4 % of Blacks, 58.6% of Asians, and 69.9% of Hispanics.
 
 
 
 
 
Below is an example of another crosstabulation, of views on obtaining a gun (harder, easier) V161187 by Presidential Vote (V162062x)  You can see that while 82% of Clinton voters thought it should be harder, only 28.8% of Trump voters thought it should be harder.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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